Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.244133 24.159080 26.218621 28.607825 31.315087 34.301530 37.864443
2026-01-25 19.041195 21.644475 24.633939 28.357920 32.925440 38.415982 45.626796
2026-02-01 16.908076 19.900447 23.516355 28.287033 34.540443 42.645859 54.278605
2026-02-08 15.286851 18.491101 22.523520 28.100586 35.835027 46.548535 63.238304
2026-02-15 14.014240 17.333221 21.652072 27.867689 36.919876 50.228760 72.617863
2026-02-22 12.990336 16.370232 20.895025 27.635463 37.887912 53.806821 82.622719
2026-03-01 12.180348 15.603870 20.303879 27.526598 38.961934 57.660928 94.047075
2026-03-08 11.480814 14.920382 19.748202 27.376748 39.904725 61.408792 106.304851
2026-03-15 11.163275 14.740304 19.886820 28.279940 42.660424 68.812838 128.402927
2026-03-22 10.589575 14.142368 19.345705 28.029297 43.383971 72.567995 143.859821
2026-03-29 10.129909 13.677127 18.962533 27.984676 44.447292 77.178083 163.254390
2026-04-05 9.790235 13.365659 18.787415 28.260642 46.125845 83.406600 189.892947
2026-04-12 9.361911 12.901318 18.349292 28.061549 46.914153 88.000463 214.784829
2026-04-19 8.970968 12.472277 17.938435 27.872325 47.703606 92.826418 243.659871
2026-04-26 8.640820 12.118559 17.624737 27.826221 48.781346 98.649406 280.492570
2026-05-03 8.314559 11.752009 17.263284 27.653828 49.563289 103.943106 319.900343
2026-05-10 8.005222 11.395519 16.894338 27.430262 50.198904 109.038028 363.575852
2026-05-17 7.719106 11.061610 16.542081 27.204895 50.797537 114.223934 413.750564
2026-05-24 7.473295 10.781063 16.264157 27.099154 51.660617 120.486632 478.439797
2026-05-31 7.238074 10.506403 15.979375 26.952882 52.406033 126.650602 552.646308
2026-06-07 7.173042 10.511317 16.189714 27.836475 55.851680 143.082889 737.191563
2026-06-14 6.947938 10.234996 15.875112 27.591395 56.362514 149.428047 855.288462
2026-06-21 6.764588 10.021710 15.663562 27.547776 57.407082 158.246181 1028.676720